"The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct."
"There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey."
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Source: This much I know: Daniel Kahneman by Tim Adams, www.theguardian.com. July 7, 2012.
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